|Brainy's Share Market Toolbox|
An arsenal of weapons to help you tackle the share market.
|Monthly Share Market eNews email update|
Keep stocks for dividends or sell?
|eNews + eBook Articles Update ||#54 - July-August 2013|
This month's Share Market eNews email
is going to all of my subscribing Share Market Toolbox
Members as normal, and to the non-Members who have expressed an interest in receiving it.
In a falling market,
should I keep my stocks for the dividend?
or sell to protect my capital?
For a while now I have
wanted to revise the timing for this eNews update, and with this
month's topic I have bitten off quite a big junk of material to cover
off. So this eNews issue is a bumper version across the two months of
July and August. And I am planning to issue future editions in the first
half of each month.
So, this month's bumper topic is addressing the question: In a falling market, should I keep my stocks for the dividend? or sell to protect my capital? See all the details below.
non-member who no longer wants to receive this material on a regular
basis can simply unsubscribe from ALL topics using the SafeUnsubscribe
link at the bottom - or just Update Your Profile
to change your interests
: Toolbox Members and BullCharts mailing list members should not unsubscribe, as it will remove you from all my mail lists.) Please
remember, anything mentioned here, and in the referred eBook Articles,
is for general education only, and is not advice of any sort.
Please read on....
About the eNews emails...
Just a short note to the recently new Toolbox Members:- These share market eNews emails
always go to Toolbox Members (a part of the Toolbox service), and to
the people who have registered to receive occasional information about
the Share Market. This is a monthly email with some pointers and tips
on focused topics - see a quick intro to the eNews emails
. They often include references to specific eBook Articles
in my Share Market Toolbox
, as well as key web pages in the free area of the Toolbox (eg. on the extensive Share Market web page
I have been writing the eBook Articles since October 2008 - that's
more than four years, and these eNews emails help you to navigate to
related and useful information each month.
|This month's focus:
In falling markets, keep for dividends?
a bear market is under way, and potentially ravaging our share holdings
just like bear markets have done before, is it really worth holding on
to our beloved stocks for the dividend income? Or should we
strategically sell the stocks to protect the profits and capital?
investors simply tell themselves that they are holding their stocks for
the dividends. But in reality, is this the best approach?
the information presented in the web pages and eBook Articles mentioned
below might not be what buy-and-hold investors really want to hear.
We did a study in 2010, and updated it in July 2013. The study looked at a hypothetical $100,000 portfolio of ten so-called blue chip stocks. We considered two options:
- Hold the stocks through any possible market conditions.
- Strategically sell off the stocks using a basic exit strategy.
which of these two options do you think performed the best over the
6-year period from July 2007 to June 2013? The answers are in the
materials listed below. And why do some people still ignore the logic of
a sound argument? It's to do with cognitive biases, and is briefly discussed at the end of the eBook Article ST-6050 (see link below).
Robert, please read on...
Price charts summarise the underlying opinions
and emotions of the market participants.
Every chart tells a story.
Understand the stories in the price charts.
Recent monthly focus topics
Since starting this new format for the monthly eNews email
in December 2010, I have accumulated many topic-specific discussions.
Rather than list them all here (as I had been doing), it is best to
refer to the latest detailed list in the eNews email archive in the Toolbox.
Robert is always very happy to receive feedback about the Toolbox, and the articles and weapons therein.
Please feel free to contact Robert by email or phone.
Sell in a falling market? or keep for dividends?
For this month's eNews focus I have a number of items in the Toolbox for Members, some are new and some are updated:
- The "Keep stocks for dividends?" presentation -
All this material has come about because of the slide presentation that
was prepared in late 2010, and presented to a couple of public groups,
then updated in July-August 2013. See the latest version in the Toolbox (after Thursday 22 August - Toolbox Members will be notified in the regular Weekly email update).
- New public web page: In a falling market keep for dividends or sell? This public web page provides an introduction and initial discussion for the topic.
- New Members web page: In a falling market keep for dividends or sell? This
new Members only web page provides more information on this topic,
including the overall $100k portfolio performance, the actual amount of
dividends received, and details of the exit strategy.
- Article ST-6050, "Keep for dividends?" - This new 8-page eBook Article covers the same topic, but with even more information, and more explanatory comment.
(Non-members can see the free page 1).
- Moving Average explained - For those who would like to see some basic comment about the Moving Average indicator, we have a Moving Average explained web page, and an earlier free eBook Article TA-4205, "Moving Average (MA) explained". The web page includes links to other materials to do with moving average (eg. MA Cross-over and GMMA).
- Article ST-6410, "Sample trading strategies - Stan Weinstein" -
This 7-page eBook Article has been revised and updated, and discusses
the ideas that Stan Weinstein published in his infamous book of the late
1980s - Stage Analysis, and weekly Moving Average on weekly price
(Non-members can see the free page 1).
- Article TA-6100, "Weinstein's 30-week SMA + Stage Analysis"
- This 4-page eBook Article discusses Weinstein's ideas more from a
technical analysis point of view, and touches on other ideas that are
discussed in his book: the Advance-Decline line, market momentum,
new-highs new-lows and the price/dividend ratio. (Non-members can see
the free page 1).
- Article BC-26-100, "Author Strategy - Stan Weinstein" - This 7-page eBook Article (published in 2009) describes several of Weinstein's ideas that are implemented in the BullCharts charting software
as "Author Strategies". This includes several market scans (to easily
find stocks meeting specific criteria) as well as chart indicators and a
sample chart template.
(Non-members can see the free page 1).
Also see eBook Article BC-26-050, "Author Strategies - what are they?".
Don't forget to see the updated Table of Contents pages for all articles (see links in the side-bar at right).
are now a total of 134 Articles in this collection of eBook Articles - a
whopping total of 613 pages of information! You can see the Table of Contents for all eBook Articles here
(recently new or updated ones are highlighted), and the Master Toolbox Index here
eBook (PDF) Articles - Summary
Since October 2008 I have accumulated quite a collection of eBook (PDF) Articles
on three subject areas - Share Trading/Investing, Technical Analysis
and BullCharts software (actually more than 550 pages of material
in more than 125 articles). These Articles are invaluable for both new
and experienced investors and traders. I am now writing brief monthly
notes in this eNews email to highlight specific Articles on targeted
topics. I am also writing new Articles and updating existing ones as
required. For more information please see:
Article front pages
For any new readers of my Toolbox eBook Articles, there are some useful introductory Articles including an Introduction and an Overview Article for each of the three subject areas. You can see them here:
What if you have some
sort of problem with accessing the Toolbox and any of these Articles? Or
maybe the Username and Password doesn't work. If there is any problem
at all, simply contact me by email or phone. The best email address for
this is: firstname.lastname@example.org
Occasionally emails disappear - the system thinks they are spam, or the
ISP might think they are spam. If I don't reply within a day or so,
please contact me by either email address or phone
is nothing secret in this email, so feel free to forward it to someone
if you think they might benefit from the information, or from being a
Toolbox Member. The easiest way to do this is to use the "Forward Email"
link at the bottom.
am also confident that my Toolbox Members won't be sharing their
username and password with non-members. It is not fair that I spend all
this time preparing the materials, and then my Toolbox Members pay money
to have legitimate access, only to let some people pay nothing to read
and view the details.
feel free to email an individual Article to others as a sample; but if
they want online access to all the materials, it is pretty cheap, so
they should subscribe as a Toolbox Member. There is information about Toolbox Membership in the Quick Links section at right.
Always happy to receive feedback, or suggestions for new content or improvements.
Until next month,
happy investing or trading,
Robert B. Brain
(mobile: 0438 355 910)
ps: watch out for the sharks in the ocean!