|Brainy's Share Market Toolbox|
An arsenal of weapons to help you tackle the share market.
|Monthly Share Market eNews email update|
Santa Rally - True or false?
|eNews + eBook Articles Update ||#58 - December 2013|
This month's Share Market eNews email
is going to all of our subscribing Share Market Toolbox
Members as normal, and to the non-Members who have expressed an interest in receiving it.
Santa Claus Rally
True? or a Wall Street furphy?
These days in the approach to Christmas every year, a lot is said about the so-called Santa Rally. But is the Santa Claus Rally (aka Christmas Rally) really real? or was it invented for some underlying alternative reason?
the last couple of years at about this time in the lead up to
Christmas, I have prepared some charts of the Aussie index, and compared
year on year, to try to understand more about this phenomenon known as
the Santa Rally. With that research done, and a few charts
already prepared, I thought that this year I should study those charts
in more detail, and see if we can make any real sense of them. See more
details below, including a note of finance industry "cynicism".
For next month's eNews email I plan to extend recent materials on the topic of exit strategies. In case you missed the recent information on this topic, you can see it here in the eNews archive.
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remember, anything mentioned here, and in the referred eBook Articles,
is for general education only, and is not advice of any sort.
Please read on....
About the eNews emails...
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always go to Toolbox Members (a part of the Toolbox service), and to
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the Share Market. This is a monthly email with some pointers and tips
on focused topics - see a quick intro to the eNews emails
. They often include references to specific eBook Articles
in my Share Market Toolbox
, as well as key web pages in the free area of the Toolbox (eg. on the extensive Share Market web page
I have been writing the eBook Articles since October 2008 - that's
more than four years, and these eNews emails help you to navigate to
related and useful information each month.
|This month's focus:
Santa Rally - Real or not?
It could be argued that the Santa Rally
phenomenon is a notion dreamed up by the Wall Street bankers to give a
glimmer of hope regardless of the economy, and to encourage share market
investors to participate (and provide more liquidity, and to increase
brokers' commissions at an otherwise quiet time of year).
may or may not agree with this. But the bottom line is that when we
hear about the Santa Rally, and we wonder whether we should participate
in it or not, we might want to pause and wonder if the rally is a
special one, or just another market rally like any other. See more
details below and draw your own conclusion.
Robert, please read on...
Recent monthly focus topics
Since starting this new format for the monthly eNews email in December 2010, I have accumulated many topic-specific discussions. Refer to the latest detailed list of topics in the eNews email archive in the Toolbox.
Robert is always very happy to receive feedback about the Toolbox, and the articles and weapons therein.
Please feel free to contact Robert by email or phone.
Price charts summarise the underlying opinions
and emotions of the market participants.
Every chart tells a story. It's helpful to
understand the stories in the price charts.
Santa Rally - True? or a Wall Street furphy?
In this month's focus on the so-called Santa Rally
I have posted a new web page with some price charts of the index in
recent years, as well as some comments. And these price charts have led
to some conclusions that question whether the term Santa Rally
is perhaps just a fictitious name that could be applied to any share
market rally that might happen at roughly this time of year. In fact,
there seems to be no support for confidently expecting a rally to take
place at any specific time.
See the Santa Rally web page with charts, comments and relevant web links here:
Also, when researching
this topic, and looking at the price charts of the Australian All
Ordinaries (XAO) index, I started to crystallise some other views I have
been building for a while now. And that led to the need to post another
new web page on the topic of financial industry scepticism. See that new web page and the comments and further links to research here:
Happy reading, and pondering, and perhaps this will give you something to discuss over the dinner table next week.
growing collection of eBook (PDF) Articles (none new this month), don't
forget to see the latest Table of Contents pages for all articles (see
links in the side-bar at right). There
are now a total of 134 Articles in this collection of eBook Articles - a
whopping total of 613 pages of information! You can see the Table of Contents for all eBook Articles here (recently new or updated ones are highlighted), and the Master Toolbox Index here.
eBook (PDF) Articles - Summary
Since October 2008 I have accumulated quite a collection of eBook (PDF) Articles
on three subject areas - Share Trading/Investing, Technical Analysis
and BullCharts software (actually more than 550 pages of material
in more than 125 articles). These Articles are invaluable for both new
and experienced investors and traders. I am now writing brief monthly
notes in this eNews email to highlight specific Articles on targeted
topics. I am also writing new Articles and updating existing ones as
required. For more information please see:
Article front pages
For any new readers of my Toolbox eBook Articles, there are some useful introductory Articles including an Introduction and an Overview Article for each of the three subject areas. You can see them here:
What if you have some
sort of problem with accessing the Toolbox and any of these Articles? Or
maybe the Username and Password doesn't work. If there is any problem
at all, simply contact me by email or phone. The best email address for
this is: firstname.lastname@example.org
Occasionally emails disappear - the system thinks they are spam, or the
ISP might think they are spam. If I don't reply within a day or so,
please contact me by either email address or phone
is nothing secret in this email, so feel free to forward it to someone
if you think they might benefit from the information, or from being a
Toolbox Member. The easiest way to do this is to use the "Forward Email"
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am also confident that my Toolbox Members won't be sharing their
username and password with non-members. It is not fair that I spend all
this time preparing the materials, and then my Toolbox Members pay money
to have legitimate access, only to let some people pay nothing to read
and view the details.
feel free to email an individual Article to others as a sample; but if
they want online access to all the materials, it is pretty cheap, so
they should subscribe as a Toolbox Member. There is information about Toolbox Membership in the Quick Links section at right.
Always happy to receive feedback, or suggestions for new content or improvements.
Until next month,
happy investing or trading,
Robert B. Brain
(mobile: 0438 355 910)
ps: watch out for the sharks in the ocean!