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Santa Rally - every year or not?
Monthly Toolbox eNews Update #74 - Nov-Dec 2015
Dear Reader,     


This Share Market Toolbox eNews Update email is going to all of our subscribing Share Market Toolbox Members as normal, and to the non-Members who have expressed an interest in receiving it. (Any non-members who want to access the detail in the Members Area can easily join as a Toolbox Member - it's not expensive.)


Santa Rally nearly every year_

Every year at some time in December, in the lead up to the Christmas period, there tends to be a discussion about a possible Santa Rally in the weeks ahead.


But what is a Santa Rally? Does it happen every year? Or perhaps in many years? Is it likely to happen again in the next Christmas New Year period? When it occurs, how long does it last? Is it really just a 7-day window at about Christmas time? These questions and more are covered in this edition of the eNews Update. 


I first posted my Santa Rally web page in the Toolbox in 2013, with some charts and observations about possible Santa Rallies - depending on your definition for a Santa Rally


For this edition of the eNews I have written three new eBook (PDF) Articles with 14 price charts of the index over a total of 15 pages. The information is similar to the content of the Santa Rally web page, but it's in a nice printable format and with extra observations and comments.


See all the details in this edition's focus section below. And please do have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.


If you would like to see a history of the Toolbox changes, see the special content update blog, and you can select the option there to "Follow" that blog to get details about new updates as soon as they are made.


Any non-member who no longer wants to receive this material on a monthly basis can simply unsubscribe from ALL topics using the SafeUnsubscribe link at the bottom - or just Update Your Profile to change your interests. BUT NOTE: Toolbox Members and BullCharts mailing list members should not unsubscribe, as it will remove you from all my mail lists and you will no longer get any emails.

Please remember, anything mentioned here, and in the referred eBook Articles, or web pages, is for general education only, and is not advice of any sort.

Please read on...

About these Toolbox eNews Update emails...
Here's a short note to the recently new Toolbox Members, and new readers of this eNews email:- These share market Toolbox eNews emails always go to Toolbox Members (a part of the Toolbox service), and to the people who have registered to receive occasional information about the Share Market. This is a bi-monthly email (or sometimes monthly) with some pointers and tips on focused topics - see a quick intro to the eNews emails. They often include references to specific eBook Articles in my Share Market Toolbox, as well as key web pages in the free area of the Toolbox (eg. on the extensive Share Market web page). I have been writing the eBook Articles since October 2008 - that's a few years now - and these eNews emails help you to navigate to related and useful information each month. You can see the past eNews emails in the eNews Archive.

Price charts summarise the underlying opinions  
and emotions of the market participants. 
Every chart tells a story. 
It pays to understand the stories in the price charts.
Don't believe it? See some supporting evidence.


In This Issue
About the eNews
This month's focus
eBook Articles summary
Front pages
Any Problems?

Robert is always very happy to receive feedback about the Toolbox, and the articles and weapons therein.

Please feel free to contact Robert by email or phone.

Contact Us..
Quick Links

Articles Master List of all eBook (pdf) Articles

About the eNews email

Toolbox Master Index

Robert's BullCharts charting software Knowledgebase
The latest  printable
Table of Contents pages for:
Share Trading,
Technical Analysis

Share Market Toolbox - FAQs

Go to the Online Shop to become a
Toolbox member. 
Join as a Toolbox Member by printing the
manual order form
complete the details and send in the mail with payment.
The Members Area Gateway (lists all Toolbox features)  

The focus in this edition:
Santa Rally - all the details
Santa Rally nearly every year_
When I was doing the research for this edition of the eNews, and studying the charts of the Australian market index, I stepped back and realised that in the last five years the market has rallied at least 7 percent over at least a 12 week period starting at some time between mid-November and mid-December. This is shown in the chart at right which is now posted on the Santa Rally web page (Toolbox Members click on the chart for a larger image). Please note that this is NOT a guarantee (nor even a suggestion) that the rally will occur again this year, nor in any other year to come. It is simply an observation of what's happened in the past. If it ever happens again, we should not be surprised.
The updated Santa Rally web page includes several charts of the All Ordinaries (XAO) index in the seven years from 2008 to 2014. Don't forget that the original definition of the term Santa Rally was coined by Yale Hirsch in 1972. For this edition of the eNews I have updated the existing Santa Rally web page, and written the following three new eBook Articles based on the content of that web page (see them listed here, in the left hand column):
  • eBook Article ST-6320, "Santa Rally - Introduction" - This new 4-page article provides the background behind the notion of the term Santa Rally and offers some discussion about why the term might be in common use today.
  • eBook Article ST-6325, "Santa Rally - Yale Hirsch charts" - This new 5-page article considers whether a Santa Rally occurred in the seven years of this study, as per Yale Hirsch's original definition.
  • eBook Article ST-6330, "Santa Rally - More charts" - This new 6-page article includes price charts showing that in many of the years in question, a rally occurred over several weeks at some time during the December-January period. 
Toolbox non-Members who can't see any of the reserved eBook Articles can at least see the first page of each from the Articles Table of Contents page in the Toolbox. The Technical Analysis and Share Trading tables of contents are updated as appropriate.
Regarding my growing collection of eBook (PDF) Articles, don't forget to see the latest Table of Contents pages for these articles (see links in the side-bar above right). You can also see the Table of Contents for all eBook Articles (recently new or updated ones are highlighted), and the Toolbox Master Index which includes the eBook Articles, plus web page references, and helpful videos.
eBook (PDF) Articles - Summary

Since October 2008 I have accumulated quite a collection of eBook (PDF) Articles on three subject areas - Share Trading/Investing, Technical Analysis and BullCharts software. There are now 738 pages of material in 162 eBook articles. These Articles are invaluable for both new and experienced investors and traders. I write brief monthly notes in this eNews email to highlight specific Articles on targeted topics, and sometimes referring to new or updated web pages in the Toolbox (also see a history of Toolbox updates). I am also writing new Articles and updating existing ones as required. For more information please see: 

Article front pages 
For any new readers of my Toolbox eBook Articles, there are some useful introductory Articles including an Introduction and an Overview Article for each of the three subject areas. You can see them here:
Any problems?
What if you have some sort of problem with accessing the Toolbox and any of these Articles? Or maybe the Username and Password doesn't work. If there is any problem at all, simply contact me by email or phone. The best email address for this is: Occasionally emails disappear - the system thinks they are spam, or the ISP might think they are spam. If I don't reply within a day or so, please contact me by either email address or phone.
In Closing

There is nothing secret in this email, so feel free to forward it to someone if you think they might benefit from the information, or from being a Toolbox Member. The easiest way to do this is to use the "Forward Email" link at the bottom. 
I am also confident that my Toolbox Members won't be sharing their username and password with non-members. It is not fair that I spend all this time preparing the materials, and then my Toolbox Members pay money to have legitimate access, only to let some people pay nothing to read and view the details.
Please feel free to email an individual Article to others as a sample; but if they want online access to all the materials, it is pretty cheap, so they should subscribe as a Toolbox Member. There is information about Toolbox Membership in the Quick Links section at right. 
Always happy to receive feedback, or suggestions for new content or improvements.
Until next month,
happy investing or trading,

Watch out for the sharks in the ocean! Robert B. Brain
(mobile: 0438 355 910)

ps: watch out for the sharks in the ocean!  

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Robert Brain (Brainy) | 23 Nathan Street | Ferntree Gully | Victoria, | 3156 | Australia