Share Market Analysis

Each week (on a Friday night) Robert utilises a small collection of share market price charts and technical analysis indicators to determine the overall state of health of the Aussie share market. This analysis tells us whether the market is healthy (as in a bull market), or not healthy (as in a bear market). And this utilises the "4 Windows" analysis approach. By following the detail each week you will be better prepared to take advantage of opportunities in the market.

Quick Links:

• See the public high-level analysis of weekly and monthly updates.


• The Members-only Weekly Market Update analysis
  (updated weekly - both online and by email).


• Public sample (PDF version) of the Members-only web page.

This analysis utilises tools, concepts and ideas from Stan Weinstein, Daryl Guppy, Jake Bernstein, and Colin Twiggs. And it uses the BullCharts charting software to display the price charts.
See the public overview analysis here. 

As a part of his own trading strategy, Robert does a detailed analysis in the same format on a weekly basis, and posts the updated observations in the Members Area of the Share Market Toolbox for subscribing Toolbox Members to see. Robert also sends a weekly summary comment by email to subscribing Toolbox Members. The registered casual Toolbox users receive this only once each month.

See a sample of the Members-only Weekly Market Update here....

How often do we see a bear market*,
or market correction*? 

You might be very surprised at how often they occur. And you might be surprised at how long they last. (On the Australian market they occur about once every 3 or 4 years, and thte market can take up to 10 years before it makes new highs).

Robert has done a detailed analysis of all Bear Markets and Corrections in the Australian share market since 1987. The results of this analysis, complete with charts and comments, are included in the Members Area of the Share Market Toolbox.

Quick Links:

• The Members-only detailed analysis of the Bear Markets and Corrections in Australia since 1987. 

• The Public Overview of the Bear Markets Analysis.

• "Bear Market Twins?" - Is the 2007-2014 bear market a repeat of the 1989-1993 bear market? See these details and judge for yourself.
  

The three bear markets 1987-1997.
(click on image for a larger version)

* - By common definition, a bear market is a fall of more than 20 percent, while a market correction is a fall of more than 10 percent, but less than 20 percent.

Robert has done a detailed analysis of all Bull Markets in the Australian share market since 1987. The results of this analysis, complete with charts and comments, are included in the Members Area of the Share Market Toolbox.

Quick Links:

• The Public Overview of the Bull Markets Analysis.


• The Members-only detailed analysis of the Bull Markets. 

As a part of his regular investing and trading routine, Robert looks at the Aussie share market in a few different ways, and mostly ustilising the "4 Windows" analysis approach.

On a weekly basis, Robert views a handful of price charts of our major market index. These are previewed in the public high-level analysis mentioned above.

His analysis of Bull and Bear markets (also mentioned above) has led to a few conclusions. One of which is that we need to be both a little nimble, and rather sensible with our investing. In fact, Robert is a nimble short term investor.

If we can see a bear market developing, we should consider changing some, or all, of our stocks into cash to ride out the storm. This is protecting our capital from downside risk. If the market starts falling, who knows how far it will fall before recovering to new highs? Remember the real truth about blue chip shares which can be very dissapointing. But, of course, the action we take should be according to our own investing and trading strategy which needs to be written down somewhere.

The weekly analysis Robert uses here is so that we can be on the lookout for possible bear markets - to avoid them. And to be on the lookout for bull markets to exploit.

Here Robert studies the All Ordinaries (XAO) index - but why? Well, it is the top 500 stocks in the Aussie market. If the index is moving up, it means that a number of key stocks within the index are rising. And conversely, if the index is falling, then a number of key stocks in the index are falling.

If we watch the XAO index, and take note of what it is doing, it gives us a reasonable understanding of the market as a whole. Some people use this as a "filter". That is, if the analysis says we are in a falling market, then they do not buy into the market (but in fact a very nimble investor who knows that not all stocks fall in a falling market will still find opportunities, and use prudent risk management).

If a healthy bull market is under way, then it is much easier to have profitable investments.

And, this type of analysis can be applied to individual company price charts, not just the market index.

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Robert is not qualified to provide financial advice, and does not hold a Financial Services License. Any charts and comments here are purely personal observations of the market. They are of a general nature, and for general education only.

There is no advice. It is recommended that you do NOT make any investment decisions based on any of the information here.