** XJO Mth - The price chart
in the Toolbox Home Page header.
(updated: 8 December 2018)
Click here to see the
chart again in a new window.
Note the details of the share price chart in the page header of the Share
Market Toolbox home page - a monthly candlestick chart of the XJO index (S&P/ASX 200). This is a static snapshot
of the index, usually refreshed at the end of each week. You can click here to see the chart again in a new window.
(Or see an alternative chart at www.marketindex.com.au/asx200.)
- This monthly candlestick chart starts from the last big bull market
peak in October 2007,
and the vertical grid lines are one month apart.
- The November
2018 monthly candle is now complete and the December
candle is partially complete.
- Each candlestick on a monthly candlestick chart summarises the
price action for a whole calendar month.
Remember that every price chart tells a story (noting the height of the
candle body and
the presence or absence of upper/lower tails). See more candlestick
details here...
Observations from this chart:
- The vertical value axis on this particular chart has horizontal grid
lines from 3000 to 7000.
- This chart is reminding us that our market peaked in October/November
2007, and is still below that peak.
- Each month the chart is compressed a little more so we can still see
the last market peak.
- Our market has not yet made a new all-time high since October 2007 -
that's now more than 10 years!!!!
- 2009-2010 - You can see the
monthly candles were nudging the 5000 point level from late 2009 to
March 2010 and again a year later.
- May 2010 - Also both the XJO and
XAO indexes were hunting around either side of the 30-week Moving
Average, before a major fall in May 2010 and recovery in the following
months; then basically traded sideways for a long time (our money might
have been better off in the bank!).
- 2013 - Then in 2013 the index
tried to break higher, and succeeded on the second attempt.
- February 2015 - The index
jumped higher with a Big White candle, and pulled the MA curve upward,
hitting resistance
at about 6,000.
- August 2015 - The MA
curve turned sharply down.
- The lower candle tails for a few months from August 2015 are sitting
at about the 5000 point level.
- From June 2017 - The next four
candles are very similar Doji-like candles with little price movement.
- June 2018 - The index jumped
above the 30-week MA, and closed at the highest level in 10 years (very
bullish).
About the 30-week Simple Moving Average
(SMA) - the blue curve across the chart:
- Observing the 30-week SMA according to Stan Weinstein's
strategies (see an
introduction here).
(On a monthly chart, this SMA is approx a 7.5 month SMA).
- Until mid-January 2010, the index was tracking above the SMA -
suggestive of bullish conditions.
- In early May 2010 the index plunged below the SMA and then jumped
either side of it for a while.
- From July 2012, the SMA basically trended higher (most of the time),
with the index itself sometimes above, and sometimes below, the SMA
curve.
- In August 2015 the SMA turned sharply downwards, then bottomed in
February and rallied into 2016.
- See more details about this strategy for
Toolbox Members here (left hand column - Article ST-6410).
Click here to see the
chart again in a new window.
For more details, also see the Weekly
Share
Market Analysis in the Members'
Area.
Robert Brain
ps: Beware the sharks in the ocean!